According to the recently released report by Bekryl, Global Electric Bus Market is estimated to be valued over US$ 25 billion in 2019. There will be over 820 thousand on-road electric bus units by 2028. Growth in the market is primarily driven by higher emphasis on potential replacement of diesel buses with electric buses.
Excerpts from the research report states China to be the leading destination for e-buses industry players. In 2018, China accounted for 97.7% of total e-buses unit sales. China is the major market for electric bus players. As of 2019, every third bus is powered with electric batteries. The industry is dominated by presence of large number of regional players. Earlier in 2018, Bekryl predicted China to register slowdown in unit sales in 2018 and 2019. The same has been noted with unit sales declining by 17.9% in 2018 as compared to that in 2017. In continuation, Bekryl further projects growth to decline by 14% in 2019. Decline in growth is attributed to decreased electric vehicle subsidies by up to 50% in 2019. This has adversely affected the regional players that relies heavily on government subsidies. Sales has declined and companies seems to be struggling making profits. BYD, key player in electric bus segment, has temporarily halted its operations at its EV bus factory in Guangzhou in March 2019. Another company Zhongtong Bus Holding registered over 30% drop in electric bus unit sales in 2018.
If China government completely phase out the subsidies by 2020, Chinese players will be put on level playing field with those of North America and Europe based companies. However, long standing technical expertise will help China based players to dominate the global share. Substantial phase-out of subsidies will lead China electric bus market to become consolidated by 2025. While the sales in the region will decline, China will still continue to generate highest revenue for electric bus manufacturers worldwide. Furthermore, Bekryl estimates sales in the country to stabilize by 2023, thereby registering upward trajectory growth. By 2023, industry will become highly consolidated with major players accounting for the highest revenue share. On an average, China market will witness 62 thousand annual sales between 2019 and 2028, with cyclic variation.